W9WI.com - My Rant

November Decision - Part 5


Reason #5: It's the economy, stupid!:
One would think economic statistics are a hard science. One might be surprised.

The GOP argues the economy is improving; people are getting back to work; the unemployment rate is down. The statistics show the second two parts are true. However...

You count as "employed" if you have a job. I guess that makes sense! However, this definition of "employed" includes those who:

  • Lost their job & can't find another one at the same pay rate. Joe Blow used to make $50,000 a year building cars. Then, he lost his job. After a diligent search, he found another job stocking shelves at Wal-Mart. Now he makes $25,000 a year. He counts as "employed" - but he sure isn't anywhere near as well off as he was before Bush came to power!
  • Can't find a job with health benefits. You count as "employed" if you have a job that doesn't offer health insurance, or one at which the required employee contribution for insurance is prohibitively large.
  • Had to move to find work. If your friends and family are in Minneapolis but you had to move to San Antonio to find a job, you still count as "employed". You, and your family, sure won't be all that happy about it though...
  • Face worse conditions at work. You're required to work additional overtime to cover for the co-workers who got laid off. You're placed under continuous stress to maintain quality as management buys cheaper raw materials, cuts back on equipment, and reduces staff. In a good economy, you'd quit - but when things are slow your choices are abuse or poverty...

  • Arguably, total income is up. That can be misleading. Imagine an economy with 201 participants:
  • One executive, making $1,000,000/year.
  • 100 factory workers, making $40,000/year each.
  • 100 fast-food workers, making $20,000/year each.
  • These 201 people earn a total income of $7,000,000/year.

    Now, let's say the executive decides to make some changes. He lays off 25 of his factory workers, and pays the rest a 3% raise. 20 of the laid-off workers find fast-food jobs; five remain unemployed. To stay competitive, the fast-food companies pay a 3% raise too. For his efforts in improving the company's bottom line, the Board of Directors decides to pay the executive a $1,000,000 bonus.

    In this new year, the 201 people earn a total income of $7,562,000, an 8.03% increase over the previous year. Sounds good, right?

    Now, let's remove the executive from the calculations. The 200 workers... went from earning $6,000,000 in the previous year... to $5,562,000 this year. They lost 7.3%.

    Yet according to the statistics, things are better. Hmmm...


    More to follow.

    © D. Smith W9WI 2009

    Page created